Canton on Emergency Management

Tsunami warning budget cuts a false economy

The San Jose Mercury News reports that the White House is proposing to hit the National National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with a $4.6 million cut to tsunami programs put in place after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. The cuts include a $1 million reduction to the system of buoys that provide early warning of tsunamis. We are assured that this reduction won't affect public safety as most of the system will still operate. It just means that repairs will be a bit slower.

Following the 2004 tsunami, the warning system was increased from 6 buoys to 39 in acknowledgement of the risk tsunamis posed to coastal communities in the United States. Currently 10 of the bouys are out of service and NOAA says they will "do their best" after the budget cuts to make sure that no more than 11 are ever out of service at any given time.

Is someone unclear on the concept here? Would we accept it if 25% of a building's fire alarms were inoperable? What about the warning systems on nuclear power plants? What if that annoying "check engine" light on you car only worked 75% of the time?

It's a pretty simple concept: early warning saves lives.  The better the data, the more accurate the prediction. The more accurate the prediction, the better we do at safeguarding lives. Knowing that something is heading your way gives you time to prepare and, if necessary, evacuate at-risk populations.

Over the past few years we've send a severe deterioration in our natural hazards warning systems. NOAA has had to make significant cuts to the US Geological Survey, which deals with earthquake predictions, and to the National Weather Service, which provides early warning for storms, floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes.

What's particularly galling about this latest cut is that it's a false economy that is totally unnecessary in budget terms. Rounding errors in the national budget probably exceed a million dollars. It's chump change. Hell, you could probably find it in the seat cushions in the White House.

Give our experience last year with damage to the West Coast from the Japanese tsunami, degrading our early warning system is just plain dumb.

Emergency Management Solutions: February 2012 Meeting Facilitation

Emergency Management Solutions February 2012

Meeting Facilitation: Structure your meetings for success

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Drought, climate change, and slow-onset disasters

We spend a lot of our time planning for the sudden, unexpected event. These are the events that leave you in little doubt that they are significant - major floods, earthquakes, fires, etc. But what about the slow-onset events that sneak up on you? These are less easy to identify. It's hard to recognize the point at which a problem becomes an emergency and then crosses the line into disaster.

The problem with slow-onset disasters is that they usually slip under the emergency services radar. They typically begin as someone else's problem and emergency services are not engaged until the situation becomes a crisis. Consequently, we spend a lot of time determining who owns the problem and who should head the crisis management team.

Case in point is the worsening drought situation in the United States. The most recent US Drought Monitor shows roughly half of the United States in a state of drought and almost a third in the highest category, exceptional drought.

The problem is not confined to the United States. A  2010 study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed worsening conditions worldwide over the next 30 years. The author of the study, Aiguo Dai, says:

“We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community. If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.”

Drought is the classic slow-onset disaster and mitigating its effects require measures that take time to put in place. If we are to be effective planners, we need to start thinking about this problem now in strategic, long-range terms. Drought does not require first responders until the situation has truly deteriorated to a crisis. And by then it will be too little, too late.

Earthquake Risk: A blueprint for disaster housing

The San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) has just issued a new report, Safe Enough to Stay, that examines housing needs in San Francisco following a major earthquake.  SPUR estimates that a loss of just 5% of housing stock could result in a major outmigration that could significantly slow recovery. SPUR's analysis suggests that 25% of our housing stock is at risk. The goal of the report is to make recommendations to gradually increase the ability of citizens to remain in their homes during repairs, reducing the dependency on congregate shelters.

What makes this report so interesting is that SPUR makes specific and logical recommendations based on a careful estimation of the potential impact of a major earthquake in San Francisco. While so many of these reports make sweeping generalizations that are short on the "how-to", the SPUR report offers a practical blueprint for increasing resilience. What the report says about the need for housing and its recommendations for a pre-earthquake evaluation engineering standard is useful reading for any jurisdiction that has a seismic risk.

SPUR's interest in earthquakes comes as no surprise: the organization was founded in 1910 to improve the quality of housing following the 1906 earthquake and fires. This report is just the latest achievement in a long line of significant contributions to disaster planning.

Public warning takes a step forward

The folks on the Google Crisis Response Team have come up with an interesting concept. By making use of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), they are able to post warnings from credible sources to Google maps to create a public alerting system. Currently the system is only providing warnings from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, the US Geological Survey and the National Weather Service. However, they have a mechanism to include warnings from state and local government organizations and expect the system to grow rapidly.

Many of my colleagues have been working on CAP since 2001 and it's great to see the protocol making the leap to social media. This is exactly what CAP is intended to do - allow warning information to be freely exchanged across multiple platforms.

Currently the Google system is displayed when you perform searches on Google maps. However, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that someone will quickly figure out a way to push warnings to the end user. Meanwhile, the Google public alerting system has the potential to be a one-stop source for warning information, something we've been needing for a long time.