
As I have mentioned many times before, emergency managers tend to have an inward focus on their communities. Geopolitical events, such as the war in Ukraine, are generally not considered something that has any relevance to local communities. This is understandable as our specific charge is the safeguarding of the communities we serve. However, one of the fundamental concepts in emergency management is that events have ripple effects, and those effects can be wide-ranging. This is certainly true of the current conflict in Ukraine and emergency managers would be wise to anticipate possible consequences.
On the surface, a conflict thousands of miles away would seem to have minimal impact on local communities. However, we must consider how the extended impact of the conflict may affect our communities. Here are just a few examples :
• Cyber warfare – Should the conflict escalate further, one of the quickest and cheapest ways for Putin to escalate the war would be through cyber warfare. Russia has an extensive cyber warfare capability and has not been shy about using it. There are rumors that Putin is recruiting hackers to augment this capability and that he may legalize software piracy as a potential threat to the global economy. Disruptive attacks on infrastructure, most of which is privately held in the United States, are also a possibility as are attacks affecting the economy, such as denial of service or ransomware attacks. This is also an election year in the United States and there is credible evidence that Russia has attempted to influence past elections and will continue to do so in 2022. We must also consider the potential impact on public opinion the dissemination of misinformation through social media and the use of state-sponsored teams targeting political blogs, something that is ongoing.
• Supply chain disruption – We’re already seeing some of this with increases in the price of oil, but it can go far beyond this, particularly if China sides with Russia. Russia and Ukraine export 25% of the world’s wheat while Russia exports 7% of the world’s steel. China controls 90 per cent of the world's supply of rare earths vital to industry and exports 15% of the world’s steel. The recent blockage of the Suez Canal, the backlog at the California ports, and the recent supply chain problems as COVID restrictions eased demonstrate the fragility of supply chains and how easily they can be disrupted. These disruptions would not only have a considerable economic impact but could affect the supply of critical components for technological systems.
• Civil unrest – There are several possibilities that can result in civil unrest. We can anticipate pro-Ukrainian demonstrations in major cities, with small but vocal and potentially violent counter protesters. If the economic situation worsens, this could also produce waves of anti-government protests. As an example, consider the widespread anti-war protests during the Gulf Wars or the more recent ones over police and civil rights issues.
• Corporate Attacks - Corporations still doing business in Russia or seen as making excessive profits from the crisis may well find themselves as potential targets. We’re already seeing the targeting of oil companies on social media because of the rise in gasoline prices. While we can expect that some of these will occur overseas, but demonstrations at corporate headquarters or key facilities, targeting of key leaders, and industrial sabotage are also possible domestically.
• Infrastructure disruption – While the possibility of sabotage to infrastructure by Russian agents or sympathizers is possible, another overlooked potential source are pro-Ukrainian groups targeting corporations still doing business in Russia or citizens blaming corporations for a deteriorating economy.
• Hate crimes – If we learned anything from September 11th, it is the willingness of some people to conflate innocent immigrants with an actual enemy. Anything that distinguishes a person from the “average” American, such as skin color, language, or dress, may be sufficient to spark an attack. We’re already seeing posts on social media targeting Russian immigrants and businesses.
As emergency managers, we have a responsibility to assess potential risks such as these and ensure that our response and continuity plans are prepared to deal with them. We may also find ourselves dealing with unusual responsibilities such as personnel evacuation and executive protection, particularly those of us who work in the private sector and global responsibilities.