Canton on Emergency Management

Why Your Emergency Plan Will Fail: One-size-fits-all Planning

In my many years as a consultant, I have had the opportunity review quite a few emergency operations plans. One of the most common tasks I am asked to perform is to ensure that the EOP is conformant to the guidance in CPG 101 Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans . The one thing that I am never asked is whether I think the plan will work. Sadly, in many cases, my answer would be, “no.”

There are any number of reasons a plan will fail. In fact, one of my most popular presentations is devoted to this particular  topic. Rather than cram everything into a single “top ten” post, I thought it might be more productive to write a series of posts on some of the key reasons that could lead to failure of your plan in a crisis.

Heading my list of potential problems is blind acceptance of the format guidance offered in CPG 101. This frequently produces what  Dr. Erik Auf der Heide refers to as the “paper plan syndrome,” a situation where the mere existence of a plan is equated with preparedness. Sociologist Lee Clarke makes a similar point, noting that many plans are used as symbols to demonstrate that authorities are in control of a situation when just the opposite is true. The late Enrico Quarantelli put even stronger, “One of the greatest impediments to disaster preparedness is the tendency to believe that it can be accomplished merely by the completion of a written plan.”

In recent articles in my newsletter, both my colleague, Tim Riecker, and I stressed the need to make sure your plan is based on the needs and capabilities of your organization. One-size-fits-all planning almost guarantees that the resulting plan will not be aligned with those requirements. Slavishly following CPG 101 does not automatically guarantee success and can even be a barrier to it.

“But we’re required to follow CPG101!” I hear you say. My suggestion is that you re-read the guidance. “The goal of CPG 101 is to assist in making the planning process routine across all phases of emergency management and for all homeland security mission areas.” I’ve italicized the words “planning process” because this is what CPG 101 is really intended to do: improve your ability to develop effective plans and it does it well. The bulk of the document is devoted to this. A process that is collaborative and inclusive and that considers organizational needs and capabilities is ultimately more important than plan format. Establish the process and the plan will follow.

One final word on formats. Here’s the word from CPG 101, ”FEMA does not mandate a particular format for EOPs. In the final analysis, an EOP’s format is acceptable if users understand it, are comfortable with it, and can extract the information they need.” So, throw out the templates, stop copying the formats out of CPG 101, and think about what your plan should look like to be effective.

More to follow!

Are You Wasting Your Time With ESFs?

In a recent article ESFs Aren’t for Everyone, my colleague, Tim Riecker argues against the use of the Emergency Support Function (ESF) system for local emergency operations centers (EOC). As someone who was in almost at the adoption of the ESF system by FEMA, I wholeheartedly concur with Tim’s assessment.

To provide a bit of context, the ESF concept was developed just prior to the Loma Prieta earthquake by FEMA Region IX to coordinate decentralized federal operations following a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region. The plan was for each federal agency to perform its assigned mission independently on the assumption that communications would be disrupted and central coordination sporadic. The concept was never implemented as planned, instead defaulting to coordination via the Regional Operations Center and the Disaster Field Office. The ESF concept was later adopted for general use by FEMA in all disasters.

The problems began as FEMA moved towards adoption of the Incident Command System and attempted to merge the two systems in the years following Hurricane Iniki. ICS was developed specifically for to facilitate centralized coordination of response activities by agencies that were primarily hierarchical in nature. ESFs, as Tim points out, while capable of providing immediate response support, also have primary recovery missions. For example, the primary mission of ESF 2 Communications is the restoration of communications infrastructure. Immediate response support is secondary to this mission. Communications support to the operations center is generally handled by a separate team in the Logistics Section. This conflict in focus means that merging ICS and ESFs is an exercise in futility. I know this from personal experience.

This is not to say that either system is wrong. ESFs are an excellent planning tool as they can bring together the various resources required to address a particular need. However, even at the federal level the system is not implemented as written. There are no multi-agency teams in each ESF. Instead, you’ll find anywhere from a single representative to a small team from the lead agency, sometimes representing more than on ESF. If a support agency is needed, the request is passed to the person representing that agency as the lead in a different ESF. The relationships and pre-planning are important, not the operating structure.

The Incident Command System has also been proven to be a highly effective system. However, the problem I have found is the tendency to over structure EOC management teams. I find that there is a tendency to confuse the overall organization chart for the community with that of the team required to coordinate activities in the EOC. Like ESFs, what’s printed in the emergency plan is not what actually occurs in the EOC. In applying ICS, commitment to ICS principles is important, not the operating structure. Determine your needs and build your EOC management team accordingly.

Like Tim, I recommend against using ESFs in the EOC. I believe they are good planning tool but a poor operational one. There are no mandated operating structures for your EOC; you don’t have to use ESFs. If you are committed to ICS principles and focus on accomplishing the core functions (command, finance/admin, operations, planning, and logistics) you have a lot of latitude to build an operating structure that works for your jurisdiction. There are no “correct” operating structures, only  those that work and those that fail.

I hear what you want, but is it what you need?

In a recent email, consultant Alan Weiss wrote, “One of the primary flaws of unsuccessful consultants is that they accept client wants as the real need.” Weiss points out that merely giving the client what they want does not offer much value to the client. Instead, suggests Weiss, we need to probe deeper to find the underlying need that prompted that want.

Confusing want and need is a fairly common problem with clients. I’ve lost track of the number of times I have been asked to write a plan or facilitate an exercise only to find that my client lacks the underlying program to support these activities. I was once told during a debrief for a project for which I was not selected that my proposal looked like I expected the client to do some work because I had proposed several planning workshops. I remember one exercise whose objective was to test a new emergency plan where the plan had never been distributed to the participants. Then there was the evacuation plan I was asked to review that had been written by a single individual and never coordinated with any of the agencies tasked to support the plan. In each case, what the client wanted (a plan, an exercise, an annex) was not what they needed.

Unfortunately, some emergency managers let themselves be driven by factors such as grant requirements or federal guidance rather than taking the time to determine what they really need. They fail to understand that grants and guidance are not drivers of your program but rather opportunities to enhance it. Here are some ways you can do this:

1. Use standards, particularly the Emergency Management Accreditation Program (EMAP) Standard. Standards provide a baseline against which you can measure your program. While EMAP will not evaluate your operational capabilities, it can strengthen the underlying administrative base on which your program depends.
2. Develop strategies, not plans. Too many plans merely regurgitate federal guidance without considering how that guidance must be modified to meet local conditions. One size does not fit all when it comes to emergency planning. One of the things I do in reviewing a plan is to analyze all the tasks assigned to various agencies; I almost invariably find that there are not enough personnel resources available to support the plan. Develop an effective strategy first, then build your plan around it.
3. Develop a strategic plan. The strategic plan is a road map that helps achieve your goals over time. With this roadmap, you can decide how best to use grant funding and incorporate new guidance and best practices.
4. Use exercises as planning tools. Each type of exercise has its place in improving your capabilities. However, they are frequently considered "final exams" given at the end of a planning cycle. But they can also As a consultant, I have found that discussion-based exercises can be highly effective planning tools by fostering open discussion based on strategy.

Understanding the difference between want and need is critical if you want to maximize limited resources. If you’re not clear about what you need to achieve, you’re spinning your wheels and likely wasting your money.

Equity In Emergency Management

“Equity” is a term that has become more and more common over the last few months. It refers to the need to ensure that all members of society are treated equally by eliminating inherent biases. In particular, the discussions on biases inherent in the delivery of government services are both appropriate and necessary and emergency management is in exception.

On the surface, this seems like a no-brainer. In my experience, emergency managers are committed to delivering services to disaster victims without regard to considerations such as gender, race, or immigration status. However, as with most things, the reality is more complicated.

Experience and research both show that disasters do not impact all segments of a community in the same way. Marginalized groups such as those with special needs or in low-income populations are disproportionately affected by disasters. Since our focus is on those with the greatest need, one would expect that these victims would be the priority and that this would in turn assure equity in the distribution of disaster assistance.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. Research by Dr. Junia Howell and others suggests that federal disaster aid tends to increase wealth inequity in affected communities. Federal disaster relief policies are not intentionally designed to be unfair but their emphasis on avoiding fraud and improper payments create rigid requirements that can be difficult for the economically disadvantaged to meet. Even something as simple as access to a computer can create a barrier to assistance.

Another issue is the emergency management maxim of “do the most good for the most people”. While the public assumes that governments have unlimited resources with which to respond to disaster, emergency managers are very conscious that resources may be limited, particularly in the early stages of a disaster. This means that we are often faced with hard ethical decisions about how and where to apply limited resources.  This concept of triage, to borrow the medical term, is based on the assumption that scarce resources should be allocated to those requiring the least assistance, thereby assisting more people, and not necessarily those in the most need. People who place an increased demand on those resources, such as those with an inability to self-evacuate are at risk of being marginalized. Consider, for example, the issues surrounding evacuation in Hurricane Katrina.

As I stated earlier, the discussion on equity is an important one and emergency managers should not shy away from it. Creating equity will require not just consideration of how we do outreach or ensuring that everyone gets the same amount of assistance. Instead, it will require a fundamental reevaluation of disaster policy and a movement away from our “one-size-fits-all” approach to services and fixation on fraud.

Thoughts on Emergency Management

Two questions that I am frequently asked these days are what significant changes I have seen in emergency management in my some 40-odd years and what I think the future holds. That’s a little bit of a moving target as one of the things I have enjoyed about emergency management is that it is constantly evolving.

Without a doubt, the most significant change, as Tom Drabek noted in Major Themes in Disaster Preparedness and Response Research has been the increased professionalization of local emergency managers. When I was introduced to the emergency management, we all came with previous experience, primarily military or first responder disciplines. You learned your business on the job, and, in retrospect, we sometimes learned the wrong lessons.

I think that catalyst for change has been twofold: role of the Federal Emergency Management Agency in developing doctrine and best practices but, more importantly, the rise of emergency management as an academic discipline. One of the hallmarks of a profession is a specialized body of knowledge. For a long time, we were content to allow ourselves to be defined by the tasks we coordinated, most of which were performed by others. This technical knowledge was useful and important, but it was hardly unique to emergency management. It wasn’t until we came to recognize and accept the vast amount of research on disaster behavior that we began to truly understand the role we could play in developing strategy and coordinating complex response.

Another significant development, which I believe you can attribute to acceptance of disaster research, was the expansion of the role of the emergency manager beyond response operations. While many of us are still locked into the role of responders, there is a growing awareness that strategic issues such as mitigation and recovery planning is where we can make the most impact. Community risk goes beyond just natural hazards, and we have an expanded role to play in other areas as well. As evidence of this, we need look no farther than the role FEMA and local emergency managers are playing in supporting COVID response.

Where do we go from here? There’s still a lot of work to do in adequately defining who we are and what we do. It wasn’t until 2007 that we had an accepted definition of emergency management and the Principles of Emergency Management. The Principles were always intended to be just a starting point, but it is only recently that there is interest in reviewing and revising the Principles. We have a rigorous certification in the Certified Emergency Manager designation from the International Association of Emergency Managers, but it is not yet a base requirement for higher level emergency management positions as certifications are in other professions. We still lack a competency framework that defines minimum requirements and standards for emergency management positions. The same holds for a code of ethics, a project that my colleague, Carol Cwiak at North Dakota State, has been championing for years. Without these things, it is difficult to call ourselves a profession.

I think the future of emergency management is bright. We have a new generation of emergency managers emerging, one that is better educated and conversant with disaster research. We have the support of a strong academic community that is building the specialized body of knowledge that underpins our profession and is developing the curricula that are educating the new generation of emergency managers. FEMA, despite setbacks, has made steady progress in developing doctrine. Yes, there is still much to be done but it's worth reflecting on how far we've come.

Where Do We Go From Here? Learning From COVID

One of the unique demands on emergency managers is the need to set disasters in context, to view the big picture even while engaged in immediate response. We need to be able to both look to our current experience to glean important lessons for future response and, at the same time, to try to project potential long-range impacts of the current crisis.

There are two things that both experience and research teach us. The first is that all disasters have ripple effects that produce both short and long-term changes. The second is that memories are short and the further we are from a disaster, the more inclined we are to forget the lessons we have learned. This means that our response to short-term impacts tend to fade over time and there is pressure to return to pre-disaster conditions.

If we look at historical pandemics, it’s relatively easy to identify their long-term impacts. I’ve written elsewhere about the impact of the Black Death on the economy of Europe. The flu pandemic of 1918 brought about major changes in how doctors are trained and licensed in the United States. This not unexpected. Pandemics are, like most major disasters, focusing events that highlight potential policy failures, and by nature precipitate major changes. The challenge is in recognizing changes that are likely to fade over time and those with long range consequences.

In considering COVID-19, I believe the first casualty will be, of course, social distancing. While there will be public pressure to maintain some safeguards, simple economics will ultimately drive us to eliminate many of the protective measures we have put in place. Consider restaurants, for example. As we reopen, we may see initial public expectation driving limited occupancy. However, the need for economic recovery will eventually push us towards permitting full occupancy.

Those safeguards that survive will be those that offer an economic advantage. Businesses are recognizing that a remote workforce offers cheaper access to talent, increased diversity, and significant savings in infrastructure. In my own city of San Francisco, many large corporations have committed to full or predominately remote workforces and have begun to either lease out or divest themselves of unused office space. This has led to an exodus of both company headquarters that are no longer tethered to the need to recruit a highly skilled local work force and to employees who are taking the opportunity to move to areas with a cheaper cost of living.

Remote work will have a ripple effect on local economies. Businesses that rely on office workers as their main source of income will have a hard time surviving. Their loss will translate to reductions in the tax base with a concurrent effect on the ability of local government to provide services such as public transportation.

The other side of the coin is what lessons we can carry forward. After September 11^th, we created a mechanism for responding to terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction.  As part of this program, we considered aspects of response to a biological attack including mass prophylaxis. Judging from our response to COVID-19, we failed to consider the application of the system to a widespread pandemic. The lack of a logistical system capable of supporting a nationwide vaccination program is one of the results. There will be future pandemics and we can no longer afford an ad hoc system.

One other area that we need to rethink is how we manage pandemics. Many jurisdictions chose not to take advantage of the coordination skills offered by the emergency management community. While there is no question that this was a public health emergency, emergency managers have the technical skills to help organize teams, coordinate diverse agencies, and marshal resources required to implement the decisions made by public health officials. In addition to the logistics of vaccine distribution, we have also relearned lessons on multi-agency coordination and sustained operations. This would suggest that the lessons of COVID-19 response could lead to a major rethinking of emergency planning, particularly in terms of large-scale events. It may be time to revisit how we plan for catastrophic events, as we did after Hurricane Katrina.

I have argued repeatedly that in the world of disasters, there is nothing new under the sun. Pandemics are predictable. They have happened in the past and will happen again. In past years, we planned for catastrophic events and for biological attacks. We need to leverage past planning to prepare for future events.

Emergency Management Solutions - January 2021

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FEATURED ARTICLES

Learning from The Past: Can Past Pandemics Prepare Us for COVID 19 Recovery?

    By Lucien G. Canton

 

A Re-Framing of Incident Management Structures
    By Timothy "Tim" Riecker

 

Preparedness is the Key to Surviving the New Normal
    By Erik Bernstein

It's The End of the World!

In 1978, historian Barbara Tuchman published a book called A Distant Mirror: the Calamitous 14th Century that provided a portrait of Western Europe in the 1300's. Tuchman's premise was that the 14th century in many ways reflected the social upheavals and crises of the 20th Century. Given the calamitous year that has been 2020, Tuchman's comparison is even more relevant today.

The 14th century was indeed a time of tremendous upheaval and people at the time can be forgiven for believing they were living in the end times. The Black Death was ravaging Europe, with one historian estimating that the death toll could have been as high as 60% of the population. The Hundred Years War was being fought between England and France, with unemployed soldiers turning to pillaging the countryside during the brief periods of peace. There were peasant revolts, brought on by starvation and heavy taxation. The Great Schism had sundered the Roman Catholic Church, one of the key unifying elements in medieval culture. The ending of the Medieval Warming Period created unsettled weather conditions that produced droughts, floods, and cold winters resulting in famine. The social order was changing as well, with the collapse of the feudal system and the transition from a subsistence economy to a commercial one.

The 14th century was a bad time, but it was easily rivaled and, some historians would argue eclipsed, by the 6th century. In 536 CE, Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia experienced 18 months of darkness, thought to be caused by an exploding volcano, possibly in Iceland. The pall caused the coldest winter in the past 2300 years and led to widespread crop failures and famine. This was followed by the Plague of Justinian that is believed to have wiped out the equivalent of 50% of the population of Europe over the next two centuries. The combination of the two so weakened the Byzantine Empire that Justinian was unable to reunite the core of the old Roman Empire by retaking Italy, an event that may have had a major impact on European history.

The point here is that, as bad as things got, people survived. The result may not have been what one would have wished, but people survived. The events of the 6th Century produced the Dark Ages, which actually were not so dark and were actually a time of innovation and creativity that is often overlooked. The Carolingian dynasty created a strong, centralized state that produced innovations in architecture, art and education, while Arab scholars made major advances in mathematics and science.   The wars and tribulations of the 14th Century led to the Renaissance and the rise of modern states and  economies. The history of disasters is full of stories of communities that have rebuilt following crisis: San Francisco, Galveston, Chicago, New Orleans. They remind us that all the worlds wisdom can be contained in the phrase. "This to shall pass".

Don't misunderstand me; I am not recommending complacency. In a time of political upheaval, plague, fires, hurricanes, and floods, complacency is the last thing we need. What I do recommend is shaking off depression and taking action to create change. Prepare for crisis; mitigate the potential effects. Above all, be prepared to recover from whatever comes and go on. Remember, as Louis Pasteur said, "Fortune favors the prepared."  

In These Dark Days, Social Media May Offer a Gleam of Light

Social media has always been a two-edged sword. It is the purveyor of misinformation and has been responsible for generating a lot of fear over COVID-19. There’s evidence that it’s being used by foreign governments to generate much of that fear and there is no question that it is being manipulated for political purposes.

Yet, in this time of doubt and fear, social media can also provide us with tools that allow us to counter that fear with simple human decency.

• Within minutes of the announcement of the public health order directing a “shelter in place” for six San Francisco Bay Area counties, the regional leader of a social organization of which I am a member posted instructions on Facebook cancelling all activities and providing guidance for how events would be rescheduled when the order was lifted. His manner was calm and business-like and spoke volumes about his leadership. Within a few hours, instructors scheduled to teach at the cancelled activities had posted offers to hold their classes online. Other members organized chat sites to provide companionship for anyone who was feeling alone and isolated. Someone organized a site to help the artisans who would no longer be able to sell their goods at events. Still others offered their services for anyone needing assistance in shopping or running errands.
• Our church cancelled services last week in accordance with the directives that preceded the public health order. This Sunday our pastor offered a prayer service via conference call and is exploring the possibility of streaming the service next Sunday. The church is organizing a “buddy system” that matches volunteers with people in high-risk categories who may need help with shopping or other needs. The pastor has already called everyone that might need help to identify any immediate needs.
• Even before this, our neighbors began reaching out on the Next-Door app to offer assistance to those who were self-isolating. A lot of these volunteers were teens and young adults and the offers were free of any charges. One mother offered the services of her sons to help teach them lessons on selflessness.

Why are these acts of kindness so important? One of the lessons learned in previous pandemics, such as the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, was that many people died needlessly because there was no one to care for them. Fear kept neighbors from checking on the sick and providing food and hydration. Social isolation is not confined to pandemics; many of the deaths in the 1995 Chicago heat wave were the result of people living alone without friends or neighbors to help. Social isolation, as distinct from social distancing, can kill.

Even more important is that these simple acts remind us that we are in this together and share a common humanity. If history is any guide, things will get worse before they get better. But history also tells us that most of us who contract COVID-19 will survive. How will you remember these days? As a time when we came together to face a crisis or as at time when fear kept us isolated?

Solving the Water Storage Problem

More that anything else, disaster survival depends on water. Assuming there are no pre-existing medical issues, the average person can survive for two weeks without food. Lack of water can lead to death in a matter of days.

The minimum amount of water needed per person is around two quarts per day, but this varies based on factors such as temperature and physical exertion. It’s this subjectivity that causes a problem in suggesting how much water a person should store. The oft-quoted recommendation of one gallon per person per day can be inadequate under some conditions and overkill in others.

A major problem is storage. While there are available water supplies in the average house (e.g. water heaters, toilet tanks), most people would prefer a more conventional supply such as bottled water. However, in these days of environmental consciousness, many bottled water containers available in supermarkets are designed to degrade after a period of months. Stored too long, they begin to deteriorate. There are containers designed for long-term storage, but they can be expensive and not all are easy to store. Part of the problem with long term storage of water is the need to periodically replace the stored water, something that many people neglect.

At last years International Association of Emergency Managers conference, a new company called Waterfull introduced a potential solution that is both simple and effective. The system is built around a pressurized 30-gallon water container that is connected in-line with a water source, such as a garden hose. As the water source is used, the water in the container is constantly refreshed. The water is easily accessed via a spigot attached to the container. The price point is roughly around $500, about the same price as a pallet of bottled water.

The concept is not new; I saw something similar offered following the Loma Prieta earthquake. However, Waterfull has put  a lot of thought and engineering into the design and materials used in the container. The container is sealed against contaminants, made from food-grade plastic, and designed to prevent algae growth. It replaces nine cases of bottled water in a much more efficient storage size. It may not completely solve the issue of water storage but is certainly a step in the right direction.